I’ve spent the past few weeks on the campaign trail, and I’ve seen anecdotal evidence that both things are true: 1) young people are incredibly excited about Kamala Harris, and 2) there’s a gender gap, with more young women voting for Team Blue than young men. The first point was clear from the number of students who attended the voter registration events I went to. Not only were they excited about voting themselves, but they were excited about getting their friends to vote, too.
No matter who wins, this election will be decided by a few thousand votes. That’s why young people—and whether they vote—are the most important variable. Current polls show that young people are overwhelmingly enthusiastic about Kamala Harris overall, but there is a significant and growing gender gap between men and women under 29. Recent New York Times/Siena polls of six swing states found that young women favored Harris by 38 points, while young men favored Trump by 13 points, for a difference of 51 points.
While it may seem like Harris is leading, the reality is much more complicated. In the past, polls have tended to under-predict Trump’s support on Election Day. The real story, if you ask me, is what young voters will do. Young voters will be especially important this cycle: For the first time, Gen Z and millennials will make up nearly HALF of the eligible voting population. In 2020, young voter turnout was 50%—a big improvement from previous years and a possible sign of another high turnout in 2024.
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